Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

My recent speculation:

Since the Direct, I personally believe that there won't be a new Animal Crossing until at least 2027, because of Tomodachi Life and Pokopia releasing in 2026. They could still make 3D Mario in the Fall of 2026 if they announced it in the late winter or summer of that year though, since it was probably developed concurrently alongside Bananza.

As for Zelda, 2026 is the big 40th anniversary so surely they've got something Zelda related for that year. My guess is that rumored Ocarina of Time remake or ports of Wind Waker HD and Twilight Princess HD that are available on both Switch 1 and 2.

I think they're going to use Luigi's Mansion 4 as the huge non-Pokemon 2026 game:

• The first game and the Gamecube itself released in September 2001 so releasing close by would act as a 25th anniversary release for the franchise
• Seems realistic based on Next Level's release timing (LM2 in March 2013, Federation Force in August 2016, LM3 in October 2019, Battle League in June 2022)
• LM1 coming to GCN NSO would mirror the timeline they used for LM3 (LM1 for 3DS in October 2018, LM3 for Switch in October 2019).

It makes sense, though I hope Next Level is working on something else instead for the moment. It wouldn't be great for them to just become the Luigi's Mansion team.

Just for fun, Switch games which sold more than 10 million by release year:

• 2017: 4 - Mario Kart, BotW, Odyssey, Splatoon
• 2018: 3 - Smash, Mario Party, Pokemon
• 2019: 4 - Pokemon, NSMBU-D, Ring Fit, Luigi
• 2020: 1 - Animal Crossing (though 3D all-stars was close)
• 2021: 3 - Pokemon, Mario Party, 3D World
• 2022: 4 - S/V, Arceus, Nintendo Sports, Splatoon
• 2023: 2 - TotK, Mario Wonder
• 2024: 1 maybe - Jamboree will plausibly hit 10 eventually

Guesses on Switch 2 long term sales:

• 2025: 3 or 4? - Mario Kart, Pokemon, Bananza? Possibly Galaxy 2 long term?
• 2026: ?? Pokemon gen 10. Unannounced game??

@FishyS Do you think Gen 10 of Pokémon will be a crossgen title or will it be exclusive to Switch 2?

@Rodolfo6493 I'm guessing Switch 2 exclusive, but it will sell for a few years so I don't think starting with a smaller install base will hurt it much.

@FishyS I've been thinking about this. Since it's the series' 30th anniversary game, Nintendo might want to sell it to as many people as possible.
On the other hand, there are technical compromises, which would limit the Switch 2 version. And an exclusive Pokémon would be the new console's biggest selling point.

@Rodolfo6493 Champions is coming to Switch 1 in 2026 and Z-A plus DLC will still be pretty new, so there will be plenty of Pokemon for Switch 1 also.

I was somewhat surprised they said Pokémon Pokopia would be Switch 2 exclusive, but if a random smaller spinoff game is only Switch 2, I don't know why the mainline game wouldn't be.

They're not though, they worked on Strikers too. They might be trading off between Luigi's Mansion and Strikers from here on out, which might be a tad predictable, but at least they're very different games unlike Camelot's constant switching between Tennis and Golf.

Absolutely exclusive. Nintendo will want Gen 10 to be one of the big reasons to own a Switch 2. They're not worried about missing the Switch audience, people will go out and buy a Switch 2 for the Gen 10 games. As for Game Freak, while it is true that they do struggle to make higher performance games and they do typically support the old console for a bit, they always make the jump by the new generation. And I think there's good reasons for this pattern to remain. Game Freak tends to like making use of the non-performance related upgrades for the new hardware. DP heavily used the DS' touch screen and Wi-Fi. XY transitioned the series to 3D and utilized Streetpass. SwSh started experimenting with larger, more open world design. So I expect Gen 10 will want to experiment with the Switch 2's mouse controls and Gamechat in ways that will necessitate Switch 2 exclusivity.

@Bolt_Strike It's also worth mentioning that Gen 10 most likely has had the longest dev time out of a Pokemon generation in a while. Usually we get a new generation of pokemon every three years. However- Z-A was meant to release last year but got delayed into this year. This year was originally meant to be a gap year filled by Z-A DLC. Since Gen 10 was meant to release for the big 30th anniversary, it means it would be a four year gap between the two gens. Seeing how fast PLA was put together, and seeing how one added year of Development would've made a massive difference for the completion of ScVi, there's a heavy possibility Gen 10 will be in a better state.

alright i know im a bit late (had a packed weekend!) so im going to write down my thoughts on fridays direct.
-the mario 40 segment was a great way to start it off. ill probably skip out on the galaxy games, but i love love the rosalina amiibo! unfortunate that they had to keep the “40” theme with the price. Yoshi’s Mysterious Book looks so chill, and i think theres a lot to be learned about that game, so im hyped for that. and wonder switch 2 edition looks like a blast, especially with the leaked character. mario tennis fever looks like a good time, and the adventure mode seems really enjoyable. however im on the fence about $70 for Mario Tennis. and the movie sneak peak looks great!
-i dont think anyone expected the hyrule warriors age of imprisonment november release date. as a big zelda fan im still debating about it, the trailers havent made the game appeal to me in any way.
-so so SO excited for the kirby air riders direct. i have a feeling this will be a masterpiece. day one! originally loved the amiibo but then saw the price 😔
-metroid prime 4’s open world reveal was epic, im glad they showed that theres gonna be a lot of content in this one. day one probably.
-the donkey kong dlc was an amazing surprise, i got it and im enjoying it a lot. very soon though.
-that’s a lot of pokemon
-tomodachi looks good! i wonder if we will get a switch 2 edition?
-fire emblem is not what i expected for the one last thing, but the story and artstyle looks great!
-virtual boy is a unexpected but brilliant addition to NSO. man you get so much for your money here 😻
What I am disappointed/confused about:
-lack of huge third party titles, although final fantasy is nice.
-no mario kart world update, it seems like its about time to give it some more content. DK CHARACTERS PLEASE!
-wheres rhythm heaven groove?
-splatoon raiders. im honestly concerned about it. the reveal was disturbingly random, and although it looks good, i think we are due for another update on it. and nothing about 3 either?! hopefully it will arrive safely on our switches in 2026.
-no animal crossing, but i still believe summer 2026.

@FishyS the 10M+ list is super interesting to look at! for my predictions im going with:
2025- Mario Kart World, Donkey Kong Bananza, Pokemon Legends Z-A, and Kirby Air Riders (i think this game will be bigger than we expect, and Forgotten Land sold 7.5 million copies, giving hope for the future of Kirby)
2026- Pokemon Generation 10, Luigi’s Mansion Four, and Splatoon Raiders

@OctolingKing13 Spinoff games do not typically outsell the main series, highly unlikely Air Riders will top Forgotten Land. I'd predict Air Riders does no more than 3 million.

@Bolt_Strike you’re right about it having less of a chance of reaching 10 million as a spinoff, but I would argue with Sakurai developing it, and the huge amount of advertising (two directs), and good first impressions from critics that it has a lot of hope. the amount of content already is insane too, and if they add other franchise characters itll be a system seller. AND Kirby Air Ride for gamecube sold 1.35 million copies, which isnt bad at all for a system that only sold 21 million units in my opinion. but hey, only time will tell!

It seems SEGA has joined in on the MK World discourse.

@OctolingKing13 Highly doubtful. As big a name as Sakurai is, that doesn't mean much if they don't like the game concept. And just because the GC sold poorly doesn't mean the audience is exponentially higher on Switch 2. Mario Strikers only went from 1.6 million on the GC to 2.47 million on the Switch for example. The amount of marketing and extras may not matter, there just might not be enough people interested in a Kirby racing game. Especially not more people interested in the first ever 3D Kirby game than a Kirby racing game, and also not when this system just launched with Mario Kart which could easily overshadow it.

@Bolt_Strike If it ends up being a better game than Mario Kart World, it could sell well in the end. A lot of people genuinely dislike Mario Kart World due to it basically being a half-baked game that won’t let people engage with it like they desire to engage with it.

@OctolingKing13 It will be interesting to see how well Splatoon Raiders does. The main series sells consistently well, but I have no clue how well a spinoff will do. Could be anywhere from 1 million to 10+

I feel like the early random announcement was more of a 'look, we haven't forgotten about Splatoon for Switch 2 even though Splatoon 4 will be a couple years'.

@grumblevolcano back to the good ol days of Sega/Nintendo rivalry, eh? CrossWorlds doesn't look like my jam at all, but I enjoyed the trailer if only for the unexpected jabs.

I know everyone is saying Air Riders is going to be amazing, but if I am being honest... I see nothing in it for me. It looks like any other racing game, but with some odd side modes (that are not particularly fleshed-out) and a strange control scheme. Anyone mind giving their reasons for excitement? Because I really don't get it.

@CaleBoi25, I think part of the reason people are excited for it is simply because the director is Masahiro Sakurai. If I recall correctly (anyone feel free to call me out if I'm wrong), all of the games he has ever directed are usually chock full of high quality content and always have good to excellent reviews. Basically, if you play a game by Sakurai, you know you're playing quality. I myself am super interested in Kirby Air Riders (I personally think it could be better than Mario Kart World).

@VoidofLight Unfortunately when it comes to sales it seems like some IPs are simply too big to fail. We've seen this with the main series Mario platformers, and we've seen this with Pokemon for example. It just seems that no matter what those IPs do wrong, no matter how badly they screw up, they routinely sell 10+ million copies just about every game. I think the brand recognition is just too strong that casuals that don't know much about the series just gobble it up because they know it's popular and do little to no research on the games themselves.

The Mario Kart games are also in this category I think. Mario Kart is always one of the top selling games on the console that casual just buy it because it's a fun multiplayer racing game with Mario characters in it and nothing more, they don't know too much about the issues us fans are talking about like the open world being empty or the lack of support post-launch, that kind of stuff is completely invisible to the vast majority of people who buy the game. Sadly, MKW is most likely going to sell 10+ million copies and these issues aren't going to matter on a macroeconomic level. Meanwhile Kirby and his cast is less well known, so it's simply not going to do as well and probably just stick to niche, dedicated fans. Bet on it, this kind of dynamic has sadly occurred in the industry time and time again.